(Radio Iowa) – The National Weather Service released its annual winter outlook this (Thursday) morning with defined outlooks for either warm and dry or cold and wet conditions going into the winter season. But Climate Prediction Center Deputy Director Mike Halpert says it gets a little bit more complicated when you look at the jetstream and its impact on Iowa.
“The Iowa, Wisconsin area oftentimes falls in between or becomes very uncertain as to whether they become drier as a drier signal as the jetstream shifts further north or becomes wetter as it doesn’t shift quite as far,” he says. “So the forecasts for Iowa are actually in the equal chance category so there’s an equal chance for wet or dry, warm or cold.”
Dave Miscus is a drought expert at the C-P-C. He says our temperatures over the next several months will likely dictate what we expect come spring as far as ongoing drought conditions go even if we do end up in a wetter than normal pattern. He says once the soil freezes in the wintertime the soil doesn’t get into the soil and then we have to wait until spring to get any soil moisture recharge.
Miscus says if the soil freezes soon before any more precipitation, we enter the winter waiting. “Not looking too good for removing that drought in especially western Iowa — which has been lingering for the last six to nine months here. We’ll have to wait and see what the spring brings,” Miscus says.
The outlook released Thursday has higher probabilities or colder and wetter conditions to our north along with drier and warmer conditions to the south, but nothing is definitive at this point, especially not knowing exactly how strong the developing La Nina pattern is going to be.
Monona-Harrison-Shelby Counties
336 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020
…FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY…
The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday.
* TEMPERATURES…33 to 29 degrees .
* TIMING… 1 AM to 10 AM
* IMPACTS…Freezing temperatures could kill sensitive vegetation and damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION… We are now about a week past the typical growing season for the counties in the warning. This will the the last freeze warning of the season.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
A Burn Ban is now in effect for Guthrie and Adair Counties, until further notice. Emergency Management Coodinator Bob Kempf reports the State Fire Marshal approved requests from Kempf to prohibit open burning in both counties, until such time as the activity does not constitute a danger to life or property.
Kempf made the request after consulting with the fire chiefs in each respective county. Any violation of the proclamation order is a simple misdemeanor.
Critical Fire Danger Today…Strong winds NW @ 20-45 mph) and low relative humidity this afternoon will result in rapid spread of any fires that start, and the potential for uncontrollable fires.
343 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020; Area Counties: Cass-Audubon-Guthrie-Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Sac-Crawford and Carroll….
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...
* Impacts…Any grassland and field fires that start this afternoon may spread rapidly and become uncontrollable.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
[COUNCIL BLUFFS, IA, October 13, 2020] – Pottawattamie County Emergency Management Director Doug Reed, Tuesday, said “The current weather forecast and environmental conditions indicate a potential for very high to extreme fire behavior on Wednesday, October 14th through Saturday. This includes easy ignition potential and rapid fire spread. Conditions will slightly alleviate but remain high Thursday and Friday, degrading again on Saturday.”
Pott. County EMA
According to Reed, “Fire departments in Pottawattamie County have responded to two large cropland fires over the past week and ask for everyone’s compliance with the current Open Burning Ban. In addition, the Emergency Management Agency is asking all residents to discontinue the use of recreational fire pits, campfire rings, covered burn barrels, and any type of burning through the remainder of this week and weekend.”
“Pottawattamie County,” he said, “has seen the devastating effects of fire in extreme conditions, including firefighter injuries and loss of residential properties and other structures. We want to do everything we can to help prevent unnecessary injuries or devastating property losses from occurring.”
Violation of the existing burn ban, especially actions or negligence causing injury or property loss, can subject a person to citation or arrest for disobeying a burn ban, reckless use of fire, or other applicable statutes. For updated information on conditions you can find further information on the county’s social media, and web pages.
An Open Burning Ban will remain in place until environmental conditions improve.
10:39-p.m. 56 mph wind gust 3 miles W. of Silver City (Public report)
10:45-p.m. 59 mph gust 2 miles N. of Tabor (Public report)
10:52-p.m. 67 mph gust 8 miles W/SW of Sidney (DOT instrumentation report)
10:57-p.m. 1″ diameter tree limbs down 3 mile NW of Glenwood (Public)
11:09-p.m. Thunderstorm wind gust 55 mph at Red Oak Airport (AWOS)
11:10-p.m. Montgomery County EMA reports multiple trees, branches and power lines are down in Red Oak
11:11-p.m. 3″ diameter tree limbs broken in Essex. (Public)
11:15-p.m. Thunderstorm wind gust 61 mph 5 miles NW of Shenandoah (AWOS)
11:39-p.m. Thunderstorm wind gust 58 mph at the Clarinda Airport. (AWOS)
11:41-p.m. 60 mph gust in Breda (MesoNet)
12:07-a.m. (10/12) – 50 mph gust recorded in Adel.
12:08-a.m. Cass County Communications reports power outage in Cumberland (Outages also reported in Massena & Lewis)
12:10-a.m. 61 mph gusts in Bedford (MesoNet)
The Montgomery County Emergency Management Agency early this morning reports multiple trees, branches, power lines and other damage is being reported from strong winds that occurred Sunday night into early Monday morning. Officials advise you to “please use caution if you’re out driving and if you have damage on your property, ensure there is no power lines down amongst the tree damage.” In addition, the Iowa DOT reports IA Highway 48 NB/SB: Road blocked due to downed power lines from County Road J28 to County Road J20 (near Essex).
Photos via the Montgomery County EMA Facebook page
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Crop loss estimates from a rare wind storm that slammed Iowa in August have increased by more than 50%. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday that the number of crop acres that Iowa farmers are unable to harvest has grown to 850,000 from estimates last month that 550,000 acres were lost because of the storm, known as a derecho.
FILE – In this Aug. 20, 2020 file photo, a cornfield damaged in the derecho earlier this month is seen on the Rod Pierce farm near Woodward, Iowa. Crop loss estimates from a rare wind storm that slammed Iowa in August have increased by more than 50%, a new report shows. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday, Oct. 10 that the number of crop acres that Iowa farmers are unable to harvest has grown to 850,000 from estimates last month that 550,000 acres were lost because of the storm, known as a derecho. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
The Des Moines Register reports that the damage caused by winds of up to 140 mph was compounded in late summer with a drought that, at its peak, encompassed much of the state. The drought is again expanding after some September rainfall.
(Radio Iowa) – The U-S Drought Monitor out today (Thursday) shows around 47 percent of the state in moderate drought — and more than two-thirds of the state is still abnormally dry. Iowa D-N-R hydrologist, Tim Hall, says there’s also a surplus of moisture in parts of the state. “It’s kind of a mixed bag in the state. Northeast Iowa has a surplus of water and west-central and southwest Iowa has a deficit of water. On average it’s not too bad. But you really can’t look at averages this year,” Hall says.
He says central Iowa is doing okay for water — but things change as you move west. “In Audubon, Guthrie, Carroll, Greene, and Shelby counties — driest April to September on record for that part of the state. So those folks in some of those places they are more than 15 inches behind where they should be on rainfall for that time period,” according to Hall. The end of September brought the end of the growing season and concern about the crops having enough water. Hall says the focus now shifts to other water needs.
“We’re looking ahead towards the next growing season certainly, and we are also looking ahead to the point where the ground freezes up and we have less ability to move water into the soil,” Hall says. “And any water that gets into the soil and eventually into the groundwater typically will end up not just being a source of water for plants, but a lot of communities pump groundwater out and use that for their drinking water supplies,” Hall says rainfall usually slows down this time of year — but any rainfall in the dry areas can help.
“We come out of a dry summer, if we go into a dry fall and the ground freezes up and sort of cuts off the ability of moisture to get down into the soil — folks is those parts of the state who have been really suffering this summer from dryness are going to find themselves in the same dryness hole next spring and it’s going to be hard to get out of,” Halls says. The counties now in extreme drought include Palo Alto, Clay, Dickinson, Osceola, O’Brien, Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth, and Cherokee.
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