(Radio Iowa) – While an active La Nina pattern continues to form over the Pacific Ocean, questions remain about what impact it will have in Iowa. Past La Ninas have led to colder winters here with some increase in snowfall. Meteorologist Dennis Todey, director of the U-S-D-A’s Midwest Climate Hub in Ames, says it appears November will be more mild than cold. “It looks like, after this cold stretch, we may be getting into a bit warmer period again for a decent part of November,” Todey says. “Are we done with La Nina and what it’s going to do for the overall winter? No, I don’t think so. I think we’re still going to see some cold coming in and more of that may be occurring later in the winter.”
Some longer-range climate maps indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures early next year, but Todey says nothing’s certain. “We’re not locked into what we are at this point and if you look at the outlooks, they are still shifting as the winter goes on,” Todey says. “The cold may be coming in and it may be the warmth of the central plains, so let’s keep an eye on this.” While we can study what’s happened during past La Ninas, there’s no guarantee this latest one will follow the playbook. “While there are some averages we can look at in the way of La Ninas, and those have been reflected in the outlooks, there are some of these big events that have not looked quite the same and have taken on a different view,” Todey says.
“That may be what we’re seeing here, at least for the first part. There’s plenty of winter to come. I don’t think the story is written about this La Nina yet this winter.” A La Nina occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cool below long-term normal trends.
(Radio Iowa) While many Iowans have enjoyed the unseasonably warm weather the past several days, it’s all about to change. Meteorologist Andrew Ansorge, at the National Weather Service, says the sunny days with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s will shift late tonight (Monday) and into tomorrow as a cold front arrives, bringing the possibility of snow.
Highs by Wednesday are only expected in the 40s and 50s, while some areas may not even get out of the 30s. As for the possible snowfall, he’s not predicting a blizzard, by any means.
The weather of the past week brought high temps perhaps 15 degrees above normal, and while we’re in for a chilly several days, he says we may yet see another warm wave before winter sets in late next month.
Officials with the Shelby County Emergency Management Agency said Sunday, Shelby County is currently in extreme fire danger and is in a burn ban until further notice. 
(Radio Iowa) – Iowa’s seeing temperatures some 15 degrees warmer than normal the past few days, but forecasters warn much colder weather will arrive late Sunday, with snow possible. Today (Thursday) is Winter Weather Awareness Day and National Weather Service meteorologist Cory Martin says it’s an appropriate time for a refresher about the dangers we may soon face. “Wintertime possesses a wide range of threats to the public, whether it be exposure to extreme cold, vehicle accidents, slick roads and other hazards caused by heavy snowfall,” Martin says. “It’s just a day that we take a look at those hazards that we can expect through the duration of winter.”
Wide sections of Iowa already had an early, heavy snow during a squall that hit in mid-October, dumping up to nine inches of snow in some areas. “It was definitely a little taste of what’s probably to come,” Martin says. “We know that even in winters where we see well-below-normal snowfall, we still usually get something that comes through and has a significant impact on transportation and other aspects of our lives.” Some forecasters predict a harsh winter is ahead, but Martin says we’re just starting to make some educated guesses.
“We’re in a La Nina pattern as we go into this winter,” Martin says. “What that means for Iowa, it’s not a strong signal necessarily one way or the other. Usually, just to our north, you’re looking at below-normal temperatures and maybe a snowier winter than what you’d typically see. Will that drop as far south into Iowa? We’re going to have to wait and see.”
(Radio Iowa) – The 2020 Harvest is speeding toward completion. Ninety-seven percent of soybeans have been harvested. Iowa Ag Secretary Mike Naig says about one-and-a-half MILLION acres of corn was left to be combined when the week started — that’s equal to just 13 percent of this year’s corn crop.
“We’ve had a historic pace in terms of getting the crop out here, several weeks ahead of the five year average,” Naig says. “We’re well ahead of pace and we’ve got plenty of time here, but it’s especially nice when the weather cooperates as it has here when we flipped the calendar into November.” It’s not unusual at this point in the season to have crop still standing in southern Iowa fields.
The growing season is longer in southern compared to northern Iowa. In the fall of 2019, there was a propane shortage as Iowa farmers were using the fuel to power the driers in grain bins. “This year hasn’t been nearly as much of a demand for propane because the corn has dried down in the field and just simply hasn’t needed it as much, so that’s been a bright spot for farmers,” Naig says. “They’ve been able to save some on that drying cost and that’s always appreciated.”
Up to four million acres of corn was damaged or destroyed by the August 10th derecho. Naig says that contributed to a slower harvest pace in fields where farmers were trying to harvest damaged stalks. “They’ve had to literally go slower or maybe even go one direction in a field,” Naig says. “We also know that there were the compounding issues of grain storage that was damaged due to the wind storm.”
Naig says some farmers had to opt to pile corn on the ground because their grain bins were hit by the derecho.
(Radio Iowa) – Iowans don’t usually see a half-foot of snowfall during October but that’s just one more thing we can chalk up for this bizarre 2020. State climatologist Justin Glisan says the month ended up being one of the coldest Octobers in Iowa history, punctuated by that snow squall mid-month that dumped heavy snow mostly in central Iowa, with some areas like Johnston reporting up to nine inches. It made for a chilly month.
Rainfall during October was a mixed bag, as parts of western and central Iowa were still deep in drought or had very dry conditions, while eastern Iowa got more than its share of precipitation.
So what does the month of November hold? Some forecasters are predicting a “snowmageddon,” but Glisan sees a more gradual move toward an early winter.
Forecast models indicate November may be a wetter-than-average month, which he says could be a big plus to “recharge” the soil in areas of Iowa that have been so dry for much of the year.
Weather records for the month of October in Atlantic have been compiled here at the KJAN Studios (The official National Weather Service reporting site for Atlantic). The data show (as most will attest), that it was a very dry, and somewhat cooler month than what we normally experience. Precipitation (including melted snowfall) amounted to just 1.15 inches, which is 1.61 inches below average. The High averaged out to 59 degrees, which is five-degrees cooler than normal, and the Low was 33, which was six-degrees below normal.
Looking ahead to this month (November): The High is typically 46 and the Low is 27. Precipitation during a normal November would typically amount to 1.85 inches.
(Radio Iowa) – The latest predictions show a La Nina weather system has developed in the Pacific Ocean and it’s expected to linger into spring — which may bring Iowa a colder winter and could influence the state’s weather well into 2021. Matt Rosencrans, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center, says they plan to update the forecast monthly.
“The La Nina forecast goes out about eight months, so if we were doing a forecast back in July, it wouldn’t have extended too far into next year anyway, so that’s one aspect of it,” Rosencrans says. “The other aspect is that you just have more certainty.”
A La Nina system occurs when sea surface temperatures average below-normal. Historically, La Ninas have caused below-normal temperatures across much of the Northern Plains states during the winter. Rosencrans says the center’s predictions are largely based on past observations.
“There’s kind of a new unpredictability die-off in this skill of La Nina at about six months, some seasons, it’s six to seven, in the springtime, it’s only about two to three months,” he says. “We really don’t have a lot of lead time on there.”
Rosencrans says they are confident of the impacts at least through February, while beyond that, there’s still some uncertainty.
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSS