349 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2011…WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS WEEKEND…

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE SNOW ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH: EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL–

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING…

TIMING…A MIXTURE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER…THE MOST SIGNIFICANT  SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS  EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WATCH AREA BUT THIS APPEARS MINOR AT THIS POINT.

WINDS/VISIBILITY…WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST  AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY OCCUR AT THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE MAIN RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

IMPACTS…ROADS AND HIGHWAYS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9AM-9PM SATURDAY, FOR THESE COUNTIES IN NW IOWA: DICKINSON-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY & IDA.

Average High for the month: 51.2 degrees.   Average Low: 27.  Rainfall/melted snow: 2.15″. Actual snowfall .3″.

Warmest day of the month was on the 1st, when we hit 70 degrees. The lowest temp was 11 degrees, on 3 dates: Nov. 16th, 27th & 29th.  We also set a record high temp for Nov. 24th, of 68 degrees.

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Normal average High for the month is 47.9 degree. Normal average Low is 26.3. Average precip. is 1.43″.

Today: A slight chance of rain and snow after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Windy, with a calm wind becoming north between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind between 14 and 17 mph becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 8 and 11 mph.

Friday Night: Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 35. South wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Rain before noon, then rain and snow. High near 36. Calm wind becoming north northwest between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Wednesday’s High in Atlantic was 50. Our 24-hour low ending at 7-a.m. today will be recorded as 15-degrees.  At 6-a.m, it was 26-degrees).

See the forecast map from the National Weather Service http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/dmx/wx/File.png

A significant storm system is expected to affect the state late Friday night into Saturday. Rain is expected in the southeast with snow in northwest Iowa. Some moderate to locally heavy snow accumulations will be possible in the northwest by Saturday Night.

One expert says record snowpack, followed by record rainfall and record flooding may become a repeating pattern for western Iowa in the future. Steven Hamburg, chief scientist for the Environmental Defense Fund, says as the climate changes, we can expect more extremes and more disasters like this summer’s flooding of the Missouri River basin. Hamburg says, “The key things are going to be changes in temperature and the fact that we’re going to see unpredictable patterns and extremes, heat waves at levels we haven’t historically seen, heavy rainfall that’s going to lead to more flooding and potentially heavier erosion.” Hamburg says climate changes are becoming more apparent in the environment in the Midwest and all across the country.

“That’s already occurring in most places,” Hamburg says. “The work that I do in the forests of New Hampshire, we’re seeing it very clearly and we’re seeing impacts on plants. Crops are going to need to change. We’ll need to plant different varieties. Some of the natural systems will be challenged by those extremes because they’re just physiologically not adapted, nor are we particularly well-adapted to lots of 100-degree days.” Hamburg says the biggest changes could come in the lack of predictability.

“The problem is the variablity is increasing and the predictability,” he says. “We can’t use the past to predict the future which makes it much harder to plan. How do you develop the infrastructure to protect yourselves? It’s going to get harder and harder and what you’re going to have is more disasters. That’s going to have an enormous impact on us economically and socially. Nobody wants to see their house and their life washed away in a flood.” The summer-long flooding of the Missouri River wiped out dozens of homes and businesses and caused some 50-millon dollars damage just to Iowa’s roads and bridges.

(Radio Iowa)

Here’s the forecast for Atlantic, and the KJAN listening area….

Today: Partly Cloudy & windy. High near 50. SW winds @ 15-25 mph.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low around 28. S @ 5-10.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy to Cloudy & cooler. High 39. S winds becoming N @ 10-15.

Friday: Partly Cloudy to Cloudy. High 41.        Sat.: Cloudy w/a rain-snow mix. High 34.

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Tuesday’s High in Atlantic was 45. Our low this morning 11. At 5-a.m., it was 13-degrees.

Here’s the forecast for Atlantic and the KJAN listening area…

Today: Sunny. High 42. N @ 10-20 w/gusts to near 30.

Tonight: Clear. Low around 15.

Tomorrow: Sunny. High 45. S @ 15.             Tom. Night: Partly Cloudy. Low around 28.

Thursday: Cloudy. High around 40. W @ 10-20.      Thu. Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low 15.

Friday: Sunny. High 32.         Saturday: Cloudy w/a chance of rain and/or snow. High around 38.

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Monday’s High in Atlantic was 45. Our low through 5-am today was 13 (at 5-a.m. it was 31).

Here’s the forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, from Freese-Notis Meteorologist Harvey Freese…

Today: Sunny. High 43. Winds N-NW @ 5-15 w/gusts to around 30.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy to Cloudy. Low 24. N @ 20-30.

Tomorrow: Sunny. High around 40. N @ 20-25.             Tom. Night: Clear. Low 15.

Wednesday: Sunny. High 45.                Thursday: A chance of light snow. High around 37.

Friday: Sunny. High around 38.

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Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 38. Our low this morning (as of 5-a.m.), was 12.

A Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Johnston says there were 50 tornadoes in the state this year, which is just above the 30-year average of 47 tornadoes. Altogether, 16 people were injured by the events, but there were no fatalities. Craig Cogil says the season started-up rapidly in March and early April, but lost steam as the season progressed. Cogil says two significant tornado days occurred early in the season, on March 22nd over southwest to south central Iowa during the late afternoon and evening hours. The event produced 8 tornadoes over a 2-hour period, including an EF-2 in Madison County, which caused property damage to several farms and one home.  EF-2’s produced winds of 111-to 135 miles per hours.

An event on April 9th was the largest outbreak of tornadoes for one day across Iowa since May, 2004, when 20 tornadoes twisted their way across the state. The event started during the mid-evening hours when the first tornado, an EF-3 (with winds of 136-to 165-mph), hit Mapleton, in Monona County. Nearly 100 homes were destroyed and many other severly damaged in a 12-to 15-block area. The event resulted in 14 injuries and 500 residents being displaced. Several other tornadoes formed over the next several hours that day, from west central into north central Iowa, including one that tracked more than 29-miles from northern Sac through southeastern Buena Vista and western Pocahontas Counties.  It had the distinction of being 1.5-miles wide at times, and produced numerous “Satellite” tornadoes, which tracked around the main tornado. One of the satellites was an EF-4 (winds from 166- to 200-mph). It destroyed a farmstead and tossed a combine nearly 300-yards.

Two significant tornado events occurred in May, including two on May 11th that hit the town of Lenox within a span of 5-minutes. Both tornadoes were rated as EF-1’s, producing winds of 86 to 110-miles per hour. Both tornadoes caused extensive roof and tree damage. The other tornado event in May was in eastern Iowa’s Howard County.

The remainder of the season saw 10 more tornadoes occurr on six different days. The most occurred on June 20th, when four twisters were observed. The last tornado of the season was on July 11th. It caused extensive damage in portions of central and eastern Iowa. The fact the last tornado was confirmed on that date marked the earliest cessation of tornadic activity in the state since reliable records started in 1980, beating the previous earliest cessation record set on July 24, 1992.

For more detailed info., surf to www.weather.gov/desmoines.