A climatologist who studies drought conditions says a “bulls eye of dryness” is centered on the nation’s midsection. Mark Svoboda, of the National Drought Mitigation Center says part of the problem is the winds in Iowa are coming from the southwest — states like Arizona, New Mexico and Texas where it’s bone dry. “This is kind of what we call a drought feeding on itself and I think we have the potential to really escalate this drought in the summer if we don’t get the rainfall they’re calling for over the next five days,” Svoboda says. “So if there’s any silver lining in the cloud — or lack of clouds, if you will — this exact region — we need that heavy rainfall forecasted over the next five days for this very region, the bulls eye of this dryness, because right now it looks like July, early August out there.” Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Indiana have had a signficant “dry down” according to Svoboda, because there was little snow fall in the winter and a relatively dry spring.

“But the temperatures have been the real story,” Svoboda says, “so when we look at temperature departures over the last, say, three months, we’re seeing temperatures eight to 10 degrees or more above normal across eastern Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa.” The most severe Midwest drought in recent memory happened in 1988 and ’89. Normal rainfall for this time of year is about an inch per week, according to Svoboda, and it would require significant rainfall this weekend to erase the moisture deficit in much of the Midwest.

“This rain this weekend, this next couple of days, is pretty darned critical to sort of tell us how we’re sitting in late June, early July,” Svoboda says. “…We have no soil moisture down to three feet virtually everywhere. When people are talking about digging posts and doing work out in their yards — and I’ve seen this myself personally, too — I’m mean, there’s virtually nothing down to three or four feet.” The National Drought Mitigation Center is based at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln. The latest forecast for the state of Iowa suggests there will be “chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the next several days.”

(Radio Iowa)

 IN IOWA THIS CANCELS 5 COUNTIES
                   IN SOUTHWEST IOWA
                   HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE
                   SHELBY
                   IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
                   MONONA

A Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 11-p.m. for Cass, Audubon, Guthrie, and Montgomery Counties in the immediate KJAN listening area.

656 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…

EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…NORTHWESTERN MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…WESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…EASTERN SARPY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA… UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 650 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA TO SPRINGFIELD…OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 65 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 37 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…OMAHA…COUNCIL BLUFFS…BELLEVUE…PAPILLION…LA VISTA…OFFUTT AFB…RALSTON…SPRINGFIELD…TREYNOR…UNDERWOOD…CHALCO…CARTER LAKE…BENNINGTON…NEOLA…BOYS TOWN…CRESCENT…SILVER CITY AND MCCLELLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS…INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 39 AND 66. INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23. INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 440 AND 454.

607 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 603 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KENNARD…OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…BLAIR…MISSOURI VALLEY…FORT CALHOUN…UNDERWOOD…KENNARD…CARTER LAKE…BENNINGTON…CRESCENT…MCCLELLAND AND WASHINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS…INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 77. INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 14.

38 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…SOUTHEASTERN BURT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…WESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TEKAMAH…OR 31 MILES NORTH OF OMAHA…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…TEKAMAH…MONDAMIN…PISGAH…MODALE…HERMAN…LITTLE SIOUX AND MAGNOLIA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 97.

437 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BURT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MONONA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
  INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAIG...OR 39 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  OMAHA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TEKAMAH AND CRAIG.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 105.

330 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CRAWFORD GREENE GUTHRIE SAC FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY COUNTIES IN IOWA.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPENCER IOWA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLN NEBRASKA.

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Heat and humidity can make for a dangerous — even deadly — combination. Today (Thursday) is Heat Awareness Day in Iowa. Jeff Johnson, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service, says Iowans can benefit from a refresher course on the risks of hot weather. “It’s intended to remind folks that in the summertime in Iowa, particularly in late June, July and early August, that we can have periods of extreme heat and humidity,” Johnson says. “That is actually a public health concern.” Johnson has some simple advice for beating the heat.

“Drinking plenty of water, avoid alcohol, slow down during the day in the heat and do your exercise early in the morning or late in the evening, and dress in light-colored clothes,” he says. “If you know of an elderly person or someone in bad health who doesn’t have air conditioning, be sure and check on them, maybe even encourage them to get to somewhere that does have air conditioning.” We’re coming off one of the warmest winters –and springs — in Iowa history, so the summer ahead could be steamy. Johnson says last summer wasn’t too brutal.

“We didn’t hit 100 in Des Moines but I think we did elsewhere in the state,” he says. “We did have some heat events. One week in July of last year, we had heat advisories out every day for a week. We did have kind of a heat wave. It wasn’t extreme like in ’95 or ’88, but we did have some heat last year.” The first day of summer is next Wednesday, June 20th. Learn more about Heat Awareness Day at www.weather.gov/dmx

(Radio Iowa)

Here’s the Freese-Notis (podcast) Skyscan forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, and weather data for Atlantic….

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