(Radio Iowa) – After three consecutive winters dominated by the La Nina weather pattern, we’re now a few weeks into an El Nino winter, which state climatologist Justin Glisan says could very well mean significant changes ahead for Iowa’s weather. “We’re in a moderate-to-strong El Nino and we have a 54% chance of this being a historically strong El Nino, meaning, exceedingly warm sea surface temperature anomalies,” Glisan says. “When we look at wintertime conditions for El Nino, we typically see warmer temperatures through December, January, February.”

That falls in line with what happened in Iowa last month, as snowfall during December was far below normal in what’s usually the snowiest month of the year. Plus, Glisan says, December concluded nine-degrees warmer than average statewide. The last El Nino was in 2019 and Glisan says there’s a consistent pattern over the decades. “If we look back at strong El Nino events, going back to 1950, we’ve had seven,” Glisan says. “Six of those, we’ve seen generally wetter conditions across the state.”

Iowa has been mired in drought for more than three-and-a-half years, and Glisan says we experienced what he calls a “snow drought” during December, while a shift could be coming in the weeks ahead. “In El Nino and strong El Ninos, we generally see below-average snowfall across much of the state, but not necessarily drier conditions,” Glisan says. “We see more rainfall, we see more wintry mix-type of precipitations. So if you couple that together with the 30-year trend, there is a potential for wetter conditions through winter along with those warmer temperatures.”

From year to year, Glisan says the average temperature over 365 days usually doesn’t even vary by one degree, up or down, but 2023 ended more than two-degrees warmer than the norm in Iowa, putting it in the state’s top 20 warmest years on record.

Today: *WINTER STORM WARNING in effect at 9-a.m.*Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. E/SE wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow. Patchy blowing snow after 5am. Low around 24. Blustery, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight & gusting to near 30 mph. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tuesday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Patchy blowing snow. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 27 by 9am, then falling to around 21 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values as low as 5. NW @ 20-35 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tue. Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. NW @ 15-25.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.
Wednesday Night: A 20% chance of snow before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.
Thursday: A 20% chance of snow after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 17.

Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 30. The Low was 21. Last year on this date, the High was 41 and the Low was 9. The Record High for Jan. 8th in Atlantic, was 65 in 2003. The Record Low was -19, in 1970. Sunrise today: 7:46. Sunset: 5:07.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast this afternoon.
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 25. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts to around 20 mph.
Monday: *Winter Storm Watch in effect beginning at 6-a.m.**Snow, mainly after noon. High near 34. SE winds at 15-25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Mon. Night: Snow. Low around 24. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight & gusting to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow. High near 28. Windy.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Windy.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Saturday’s High in Atlantic was 32. The Low this morning was 22. We received .1″ (one-tenth) of an inch of snow at the KJAN studios. That amounted to a liquid value of just .01″.  Last year on this date, the High was 28 and the Low was 8. The Record High for Jan. 7th in Atlantic, was 63 in 2003. The Record Low was -27, in 1912. Sunrise today: 7:46. Sunset: 5:06.

Friday’s High in Atlantic was 34. The Low was 24. Last year on this date, the High was 40 and the Low was 13. The Record High for Jan. 5th in Atlantic, was 56 in 1933. The Record Low was -26, in 1910. Sunrise today: 7:46. Sunset: 5:05.

Today: Patchy fog or freezing fog before 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: A slight chance of snow between 8pm and 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.
Monday: Snow, possibly mixed with rain, mainly after noon. High near 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday’s High in Atlantic was 33. The Low was 20. Last year on this date, the High was 31 and the Low was 15. The Record High for Jan. 5th in Atlantic, was 62 in 2012. The Record Low was -26, in 2010. Sunrise today: 7:46. Sunset: 5:04.

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming south southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. South wind 5 to 8 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. South southeast wind around 6 mph becoming west southwest after midnight.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Wednesday’s High in Atlantic was 31. The Low was 20. Last year on this date, the High in Atlantic was 29, and the Low was 24. The All-Time Record High here on January 4th was 59 in 1939, and the Record Low was -29 in 2010. Sunrise is at 7:46. Sunset at 5:03.

(Radio Iowa) – The final tallies are in, and state climatologist Justin Glisan says 2023 is going down as one of Iowa’s warmest and driest years in more than 150 years of record keeping. Glisan says when you average out the temperatures over 365 days, it’s rare for Iowa’s year-long average temperature to vary by even one-degree above or below the previous year, but that changed during 2023. “We were over two degrees above average,” Glisan says, “so that was looking at the rankings that we have, it’ll be in the top 20 warmest years on record, again going back to 1872.”

As 2023 concluded, he says it ended 182 consecutive weeks of at least D-1 moderate drought in some part of the state. That’s more than three-and-a-half years of continuous drought and some sections of the state have very dry conditions. “We have widespread drought, a large D-3, which is on that scale of D-0 to D-4 for extreme drought, a large swath in eastern Iowa,” Glisan says. “Precipitation deficits within that D-3 region, anywhere from 12 to 18 inches below average just for the year.”

Justin Glisan (Photo courtesy Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship)

The only corner of the state that recorded above-average precipitation during 2023 was northwest Iowa, which saw between one and three inches more than the norm. However, he says the rest of the state was exceptionally dry. “Overall, if you look at the statewide average, about 27 inches, with the average just a little over 35-and-a-half inches,” Glisan says, “so about nine inches below average, and looking at the rankings, it’ll be in the top 25 driest years on record.”

After three consecutive La Nina winters, we’re now in an El Nino pattern, which Glisan says tends to bring the Midwest warmer temperatures in addition to wetter conditions. Glisan says Iowa had a bit of a snow drought last month. “Climatologically December is the snowiest month for Iowa,” Glisan says. “The preliminary statewide average is 1.4 inches. That’s 6.5 inches below average.” Despite the lack of snow, December was one of four months out of 2023 that wound up with ABOVE average precipitation. “A majority of our precipitation was rainfall and that rainfall was gradual over several days and it was able to soak in,” Glisan says. That’s because December temperatures were above average, keeping the ground from freezing solid.

Glisan says there is a storm system in the Pacific Ocean that’s headed east and the long-term forecast indicates it may bring rain and snow to Iowa as early as this weekend. Glisan cautions, though, that the storm system could weaken as it makes landfall on the west coast and moves across the Rockies.

(Radio Iowa) – State Climatologist Justin Glisan says Iowa had a bit of a snow drought last month. “Climatologically December is the snowiest month for Iowa,” Glisan says. “The preliminary statewide average is 1.4 inches. That’s 6.5 inches below average.” Despite the lack of snow, December was one of four months out of 2023 that wound up with ABOVE average precipitation.

“A majority of our precipitation was rainfall and that rainfall was gradual over several days and it was able to soak in,” Glisan says. That’s because December temperatures were above average, keeping the ground from freezing solid. Glisan says there is a storm system in the Pacific Ocean that’s headed east. The long-term forecast indicates it may bring rain AND snow to Iowa as early as this weekend. Glisan cautions, though, that the storm system could weaken as it makes landfall on the west coast and moves across the Rockies.

Today: **Dense Fog Advisory until 10-a.m.**Patchy fog between 7am and 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 35. North wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. North northeast wind 3 to 8 mph.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.
Tom Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

Tuesday’s High in Atlantic was 43. The Low was 20. Last year on this date, the High in Atlantic was 37, and the Low was 25. The All-Time Record High here on January 3rd was 52 in 1933, and the Record Low was -30 in 2010. Sunrise is at 7:46. Sunset at 5:02.

(Radio Iowa) – Wide areas of central and southern Iowa have had very little snowfall in recent months, not that many of us are complaining. The Des Moines International Airport reported just two-tenths of an inch of snow on December 26th, along with more than two inches in November, which melted quickly. Meteorologist Marvin Percha, at the National Weather Service in Johnston, admits it’s odd. “It’s certainly not normal,” Percha says, “but it’s certainly not unprecedented by any means in terms of snowfall to start the year.” The first day of winter was December 21st, though meteorological winter begins December 1st. Still, Percha checked the records from October 1st through January 1st and discovered, this is unusual, but not significant over the decades.

“In terms of the winter so far, it’s tied with 1931 for 23rd least amount of snow,” Percha says. “Apparently 1889, going into January 1st of 1890, had 0.3, so that was the lowest.” It’s out of the norm to have so much grass visible as we start the new year, following a Christmas that was not white, especially when compared to how much snowfall we’re used to having by now. “On the other hand, if you want to see, say, the highest amounts, there’s been as much as 33.9 inches in 1984 by this point,” Percha says, “so it’s certainly well below normal but not any sort of record.”

While there’s no precipitation expected for the region for almost a week, the long-range forecast says rain and snow are likely -next- Monday.