(Radio Iowa) — Residents along the Missouri River are hearing repeated warnings of likely flooding in 2020 due to saturated soil conditions from a very wet 2019. Kevin Low, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service, says the latest 90-day river outlook indicates a high probability for continued or renewed flooding along several of the Missouri River’s tributaries. “For the main stem Missouri River itself, there’s roughly a 50-50 chance for minor flooding to occur in some reaches below Nebraska City,” Low says. “All of this risk for flooding is, of course, dependent on the timing and locations of any plains snowmelt, rain-on-snow events, and just plain rain events.”

The projections are based on several factors, including precipitation expected in the next three months. Doug Kluck is the regional climate services director with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Kansas City. Kluck says the outlook for January through March indicates elevated levels of above-normal precipitation across the entire Missouri River basin thanks to heavy rain and snow in the mountains and plains. “The confidence level in those predictions, or that outlook, isn’t extremely high,” Kluck says. “I’ll say that. We don’t have a strong El Nino or La Nina. We’re not leaning on a lot with these predictions. However, as of this moment anyway, we’re saying above-normal precipitation. Most of that will be snow, as you’d expect, in Montana and Wyoming.”

Heavy runoff from mountain snowpack is also expected to continue. John Remus, chief of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division, offers assurances to residents in the region. “The Corps remains fully committed to our flood risk reduction mission, protecting stakeholders when we can from significant runoff events that pose a threat to human health and safety,” Remus says. “Floods can and will occur regardless of basin or system conditions, including ice-induced flooding during the winter freeze-in and spring breakup periods, and flooding due to thunderstorms.”

Corps officials say releases from Gavins Point Dam in South Dakota were increased on Tuesday from 27,000 to 30,000 cubic feet per second. Because of the high runoff expected, monthly average releases are expected to range from 33,000 c-f-s during the summer to 42,000 c-f-s in the fall. Releases will be reduced in response to downstream flooding when appropriate. The National Weather Service will issue its first spring flooding outlook on February 13th.

Today: Partly cloudy-to-cloudy. High 49. S/SW @ 15-20.

Tonight: P/Cldy to Cldy. Low 20. NW @ 10-15.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy w/a chance of light snow or flurries (mainly during the afternoon). High 25. N @ 10-20.

Saturday: Mo. Cldy w/a chance of light snow/flurries. High 23.

Sunday: Mo. Cldy. High 25.

Wednesday’s (the 24-hour) High in Atlantic was 42 (the temps rose overnight into early this morning). Our Low was 15. Last year on this date, the High in Atlantic was 30 and the Low was 15. The record High for Jan. 9th in Atlantic, was 58 in 2002. The Record Low was -23 in 1974.

(Radio Iowa) — State Climatologist Justin Glisan says the month of December was warmer than average for the second straight year. “We were actually six degrees above average statewide. The average temperature was 28-point-nine degrees,” Glisan says. “It’s interesting — last December 2018 — we were five-point-one degrees above average. So warmer than last year.” The amount of rain and snow in the month was not very notable. “Statewide we were one-point-three-two inches of precipitation — and that’s just two-tenths of an inch below average….we were kind of a balancing act. Northwestern Iowa saw above average precipitation — including snowfall — while southern Iowa and eastern Iowa were below average precipitation wise,” Glisan says.

Glisan says warmer weather had an impact on the normal snow-rain mix of precipitation for December. “Normally in December we get eight-point-three inches of snowfall. Preliminary numbers have us at two-point-four,” according to Glisan. He says the overall average temperature for the year that just ended wasn’t too far from the norm. “Temperature wise we were at 46-point-eight degrees and that ranks us preliminarily as 42nd coldest. We have 147 years of record keeping across the state,” Glisan says. “so, it’s kind of more of a ho-hum year when we are talking temperature wise.”  The amount of rain however was in the top ten. “We had 41-point-five-two inches of rainfall plus snowfall — and that makes it the ninth wettest on record — and again these records go back 147 years. You recall back to 2018 — it was actually the second wettest year behind the great flood year of ’93. We had a little over 45 inches last year — with the record being 48 inches in 1993,” Glisan says.

He says the timing of the wet months in 2019 obviously did not work out well in a state that depends on agriculture. “May was the sixth wettest May on record, spring was the 12th wettest. And then we get into dryness concerns moving into July and August. And then we get to September — ninth warmest — 15th wettest,” he says.  Glisan says he expects the same type of variable conditions to continue into the new year.

In Atlantic, rain and melted snowfall in December amounted to just .7” (Seven-tenths of an inch). Normally, we would see 1.11 inches. The most precipitation during December happened on the 28^th, when we received .6” rain here at the KJAN Studios. The most snow (.6”) fell on the 15^th. The average High for last month was nearly 41-degrees (40.9), which was 8-degrees warmer than normal. The warmest (and record-setting) day, was on Christmas Day, when we topped out 60-degrees. The average Low of 20 (19.9), was 5-degrees warmer than normal. Our coldest mornings were on the 17^th and 18th, when we bottomed out at 9-degrees both days.

During the month of January, our High in Atlantic is typically around 29 (29.4), and the average Low is 9 (9.3). Precipitation (rain and/or melted snow) is normally around .84” (a little more than ¾ of an inch).

Today: Partly cloudy to cloudy. High around 40. W @ 10 mph.

Tonight: P/Cldy to cldy. Low 22. W @ 5.

Tomorrow: P/Cldy to cldy. High 39. NW @ 10-15.

Wednesday: P/Cldy to cldy. High around 40.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy w/a slight chance of light afternoon rain.  High 45.

Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 46. Our Low was 20. Last year on this date, the High in Atlantic was 50. The Low was 34. The all-time Record High in Atlantic on Jan. 6th, was 56 in 1933. The Record Low was -24 in 1910.

Today: Sunny & windy. High near 44. NW @ 15-35 w/gusts to near 40 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Winds becoming light and variable after midnight.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. S/SW @ 5-10 mph in the morning.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. W @ 10-20.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. W @ 10-25 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 18.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny & breezy. High near 42.

Our 24-hour High in Atlantic (ending today at 7-a.m.) will be 41. The 24-hour Low, 15. Last year on this date, our High was 59 and the Low was 24. The Record High in Atlantic for Jan. 5th, was 62 in 2012. The Record Low was -26 in 2010.

Skyscan Forecast Saturday, January 04, 2020  Dan Hicks

Today: Partly cloudy. NW shifting to SW @ 10-15. High 39.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. SW @ 10-15. Low 30.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. NW @ 10-20. High 42.

Sunday Night: Increasing clouds. NW @ 5-10. Low 25.

Monday: Partly cloudy to cloudy. High 36.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy to cloudy. High 34.

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Today: Mostly cloudy w/light snow or flurries this afternoon. High 36. NW @ 10-15.
Tonight: Cloudy w/light snow or flurries through about midnight. Low 20. N @ 5-10.
Saturday: P/Cldy. High near 38. SW @ 10-15.
Sunday: P/Cldy. High 43.
Monday: P/Cldy. High around 30.

Thursday’s High in Atlantic was 46. Our Low this morning, 21. Last year on this date, the High in Atlantic was 51 and the Low was 23. The record High for Jan. 3rd in Atlantic, was 52 in 1933. The Record Low was -30 in 2010.