(Radio Iowa) – Forecasters say the first significant snowfall of the season is headed toward Iowa and 22 counties across the state’s northern third are under a Winter Storm Watch. Meteorologist Roger Vachalek, at the National Weather Service, says moderate-to-heavy snow is possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  “There’s about a 40- to 50-percent chance in the northwestern counties of seeing more than six inches of snow but four to five inches is a pretty sure bet,” Vachalek says. “The farther south you get toward the Des Moines metro, there’s about a 50-percent chance of seeing an inch of snow.”

Snow has already fallen a couple of times in various parts of the state in recent weeks, but this storm promises to be widespread and could potentially paint all but the Keokuk area in white. “Impacts from the storm are going to be the snowfall, of course, but we also have some wind coming in on the back side of it and visibilities will probably be dropping down as well later on Friday afternoon and evening,” Vachalek says. “You’re really going to want to watch this carefully. We haven’t driven for quite a while in this type of weather and people need to be very, very cautious.”

Winter Storm Watch for counties in blue Friday afternoon & Friday night. (NWS)

Folks in parts of southern and central Iowa enjoyed unseasonably warm temperatures last week, with highs in the 60s and near 70. This week is shaping up to be quite chilly, as we’ve had to break out the winter coats, hats and gloves, but the weather rollercoaster will go back up next week. “The snow that falls on Friday, in many cases, may all be melted by next Wednesday or Thursday, as high temperatures rebound into the 50s even as far as northern Iowa,” Vachalek says. “This is very unusual. We call it a high amplitude pattern where we get some big changes or big swings coming into and out of the state.”

With next week’s predicted warm-up, Vachalek says it’s difficult to predict whether any of Iowa will see a White Christmas. We’ll have a better view of the probabilities in another week.

Today: Partly cloudy. High 40. Winds SE @ 10 mph.
Tonight: P/Cldy to Cloudy. Low 30. SE @ 5-10.
Tomorrow: P/Cldy to Cldy. High 50. S-NW @ 10-15.
Friday: Cldy w/light rain. High 38.
Saturday: Cloudy to P/Cldy w/light snow in the morning. High 36.

Tuesday’s High in Atlantic was 41. Our Low was 19. Last year on this date the High in Atlantic was 55 and the Low was 17. The Record High on this date was 67 in 1946. The Record Low was -18 in 1917 & 1976.

Today: Partly cloudy. High around 28. NW @ 20-40 mph diminishing late.
Tonight: P/Cloudy to cloudy w/a chance of flurries late. Low around 15. SE @ 10-15.
Tomorrow: Mo. Cldy w/flurries in the morning. High around 38. S/SE @ 10-20.
Wednesday: P/Cldy. High 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 52. Our Low this morning, 23. Last year on this date the High in Atlantic was 38 and the Low was 22. The Record High on this date was 69 in 1938. The Record Low was -12 in 2005.

Today: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Windy, with a south wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northwest 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 21. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as 5. Blustery, with a northwest wind 8 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow after midnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 16. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. South wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

Saturday High in Atlantic was 47. Our Low was 28. Last year on this date the High in Atlantic was 48 and the Low was 16. The Record High on this date was 66 in 2001. The Record Low was -14 in 2005.

(Radio Iowa) – December in Iowa began with a very unseasonably warm start. State climatologist Justin Glisan says November wrapped up slightly warmer than normal, too, as well as drier.  “The average temperature was about 39 degrees and that’s a little over two degrees above average,” Glisan says. “On the precipitation front, we were drier than average across the state. We did have pockets of slightly-above-average precipitation but overall slightly under an inch below-average precipitation.”  While winter doesn’t officially start until December 21st, snowfall isn’t out of the ordinary for this time of year, though there weren’t many flakes flying during November.

“We were below-average on snowfall across the state, anywhere from two to three inches, and there were some stations that didn’t get any snowfall in November,” Glisan says, “which is not extreme but also remarkable.” The forecast models for the month of December are showing a trend toward more spring-like temperatures versus fall or winter. “We have seen a persistent signal in which we’re seeing above-average behavior for warmer temperatures,” Glisan says. “We’ve definitely seen that over the last week with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, anywhere from 15 to 25 degrees above average, depending on your location.”

State Climatologist Justin Glisan. (file photo)

The La Nina weather pattern is expected to start influencing our region’s climate soon, but Iowa is in the center of two converging fronts — so it’s a toss-up as to what we might get for snow or rain. “If we look at the precipitation outlook for December, it’s showing us that classic La Nina signature in which we have above-average chances of wetter conditions in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and up to the Pacific Northwest, drier probabilities south of us and Iowa happens to be right in the middle.”

The National Weather Service won’t be making its forecast for the likelihood of a White Christmas until around the 15th of December, or some ten days out from the 25th.

Today: Partly cloudy. High 58. E/SE – N @ 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Fair to P/Cldy. Low 28. Winds light & variable.
Tomorrow: P/Cldy. High 50. NE @ 5-10.
Sunday: P/Cldy to Cldy. High 52.
Monday: P/Cldy, windy & cooler. High 32.

Thursday’s High of 65 in Atlantic broke the record of 63 set in 1995. Our Low his morning was 32. Last year on this date the High in Atlantic was 45 and the Low was 18. The Record High on this date was 64 in 2017. The Record Low was -13 in 1919.

Today: Mostly sunny. High 66. NW wind @ 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Clear. Low 36. Winds light & variable.
Tomorrow: P/Cldy. High 57. N @ 5-10.
Saturday: P/Cldy. High 52.
Sunday: P/Cldy. High 48.

Wednesday’s High in Atlantic was 60. Our Low his morning 35. Last year on this date the High in Atlantic was 50 and the Low was 16. The Record High on this date was 63 in 1995. The Record Low was -10 in 1985.