The National Weather Service is predicting Iowa’s early summer temperatures and rainfall will be near normal, but two Iowa-based climatologists say they’re somewhat concerned about the weather impact on Iowa’s crop-growing season. The N-W-S forecast predicts warmer than normal temperatures south of Iowa and Illinois in the extreme southern cornbelt. State Climatologist Harry Hillaker says he doesn’t want to see the warm temperatures seep into Iowa.  “A little bit of concern though, you know the last week oh about a week and a half now has been quite dry across Iowa, and very dry to the southwest of us. Kansas, Oklahoma has turned very dry in the last few weeks. Don’t like to see that area so close by you know to see drought expanding this time of the year because very often it keeps on expanding as time goes on,” according to Hillaker. And Iowa’s May temperatures are already running about six-degrees above normal.

“Which is quite a large departure for this time of the year, historically you look back at years that brought us unusually warm Mays — pretty large percentage of the time its also brought us above normal temperatures for June and July,” Hillaker says.  Iowa State University climatologist, Elwyn Taylor, is also worried about the long-range forecasted above normal temperatures in the southern corn belt. “That’s slightly discouraging.I don’t like to see July and August on the warm side of usual. The plants use more water, they mature faster and so they don’t get as many days in the sun to put on the weight that we harvest and sell.” The long-range forecast is for normal precipitation through June. Hillaker says the La Nina and El Nino influences are subsiding and shouldn’t affect Iowa’s summer weather.

(Dar Danielson/Radio Iowa)

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Here’s the (podcast) Freese-Notis forecast for Atlantic and the KJAN listening area, along with the weather stats for Atlantic….

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347 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

TODAY…SUNNY…BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY…SUNNY…BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY. LOW IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.COOLER. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 50S.

A report from a non-profit environmental group says extreme storms are hitting the Midwest more frequently and the flood damage they’re causing is getting worse. Stephen Saunders, president of the Denver-based Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, says their research covered records from more than 200 weather stations in Iowa and seven other Midwestern states from the years 1960 through 2011. The lead author of the report, Saunders says, “We found the total precipitation from all the storms in the Midwest went up at a rate of 23% over that 51-year period.” Scientists point to global climate change, he says, as the culprit behind the rising severity of storms over the five decades. During that time, there was no change in the pattern of minor storms, while they found the nastier storms appeared much more often.

Saunders says, “The frequency of storms that dumped 1-2″ of precipitation in a day went up by 34%, storms of 2-3″ went up by 81% and what we call the extreme storms, those that had 3″ or more of precipitation in a day, went up by 103%.” Incidences of the most severe downpours doubled over the last half century. “The last decade, the last dozen years, has been particularly tough,” Saunders says. “Of the first 12 years of this century, seven of the nine worst years for extreme storms in the Midwest occurred in those 12 years.” The study found the two most destructive years for flooding in our region during the five decades were 1993 and 2008, years that hold foul memories for many Iowans.

“As people who lived through those floods in the Midwest know, those were two years of the worst flooding the Midwest has had in more than 80 years,” Saunders says. “In 2008, the flooding caused $16-billion in damages and in 1993, the flooding caused $33-billion in damage in the Midwest.” He says global studies already blame human-caused climate change for driving more extreme precipitation, and if emissions keep going up, Saunders says the forecast is for even more extreme storms in the region. One of the group’s recommendations is: enacting comprehensive mandatory limits on global warming pollution to reduce emissions by at least 20-percent below current levels by 2020 and 80-percent by 2050. The report is called, “Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms.” Learn more at the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization website: www.rockymountainclimate.org

(Matt Kelley/Radio Iowa)

The Freese-Notis 4-day forecast (Podcast) for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, & weather stats for Atlantic…

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332 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

TODAY…SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY…SUNNY…BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 60S. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

512 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
Counties in Iowa: GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-

DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON, AND ENDING BEFORE SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTERMITTENTLY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

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336 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.

TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY…SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. LOW IN THE MID 60S.