AREA COUNTIES: MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE.   429 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR THIS AREA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS BY NOON AND BEYOND. THE FRONT AT THAT TIME COULD LIFT TO A CRETE NEBRASKA TO RED OAK IOWA LINE. STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

THE BEST AREA FOR THE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON…THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TRIPLE POINT WHICH COULD BE BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND LINCOLN…THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION…COMBINED WITH STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH…MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

• Today ** Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10-a.m. for Fremont, Mills & Pottawattamie Counties** Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
• Tonight Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 57. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 8 to 17 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
• Monday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 56 by 10am. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
• Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
• Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

258 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES:  FREMONT-MILLS-POTTAWATTAMIE.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…COUNCIL BLUFFS… FARRAGUT… GLENWOOD… HAMBURG… SIDNEY…and..TABOR.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 137

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 623 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE: ADAMS DECATUR RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION.