(Radio Iowa) – State Climatologist Justin Glisan says rain is in the forecast for the next several days, but Iowa has been abnormally dry this month. “Going back to 1895, when the federal records starts, this is the second driest September through the 18th,” Glisan says. The latest Iowa Drought Monitor shows moderate drought conditions exist in about four percent of the state — affecting five counties in northeast Iowa as well as Fremont County in the southwest corner of the state. The rest of Iowa is rated abnormally dry.

“If you look at the statewide average right now, we’re about at a tenth of an inch and that’s about 5% of normal,” Glisan says. “Now again, in the forecast we do see the potential of an inch and a half to two inches across much of the state with the potential for thunderstorms tonight, but widespread rainfall over the weekend.” Warm temperatures this month have depleted some moisture in the top soil and, if that isn’t replenished before the ground freezes, it will be a concern heading into spring planting, however Glisan says it’s not a concern right now during harvest season.

State Climatologist Justin Glisan (Official photo from Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship photo.)

“Basically the crop is done, so it’s not using a lot of water,” Glisan says. “Stream flows are still near normal or slightly above.” The storm front that’s moved into the state today (Thursday) has displaced the large ridge of high pressure that prevented thunderstorms from forming. “Now we’re starting to shift that ridge further east and we’re going to have a low pressure system across the upper Midwest swing a cold front through the state and that’s where you get lift and instability to go along with the moisture that we have readily available,” Glisan says, “and that’s where we’re going to fire thunderstorms off.”

Glisan says the outlook is for near normal rainfall in Iowa through the end of September.