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ISU, Grinnell College professors say polling show Trump backing ‘durable

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December 26th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

(Radio Iowa) – Two Iowa-based political science professors say their polling shows voters who say they’re backing Donald Trump aren’t likely to change their minds when voting begins next month.

Iowa State University professor David Peterson is manager of ISU’s Civiqs Poll, Earlier this month, that poll found Trump’s support among likely Iowa Caucus-goers had grown to 54%.

“The people who support Donald Trump are loyal,” Peterson says. “…When you ask them about the indictments President Trump is facing, they will say: ‘He’s done nothing wrong.’ And over and over, question after question that we ask these folks, the supporters of Donald Trump deeply believe him and are deeply committed to him.”

Grinnell College professor Peter Hanson (on left) and Iowa State University professor David Peterson on the Iowa Press set. (Photo courtesy of Iowa PBS.)

Peter Hanson, director of the Grinnell College National Poll, says Trump is well positioned for the General Election. “There’s almost this expectation among Democrats that, you know, ‘Surely when this event happens, voters will come to share our perspective and the support for Donald Trump will dissipate.’ Well, it doesn’t happen,” Hanson says. “That support is durable. It’s robust. I have no reasonable expectation that will change and that puts him in a very for this race.”

Peterson says Governor Kim Reynolds’ endorsement of Ron DeSantis didn’t shake up the race.

“This was a sign of courage by Governor Reynolds, right? She could easily have said: ‘You know, look, Iowa governors don’t endorse,’” Peterson says. “…Instead, she had her convictions that Donald Trump was the wrong nominee for the Republican Party and she took a risk to do what she thought she could do to try to prevent that outcome.”

Hanson says he hasn’t seen any evidence that an appeal from Reynolds or any other Republican figure is going to shake voters who are loyal to Trump. “My guess is that we’re going to end up with Donald Trump as the nominee,” Hanson says, “and that’s going to create some uncomfortable politics between Reynolds and Donald Trump.”

Hanson and Peterson made their comments during a recent episode of Iowa Press on Iowa PBS. The Iowa Caucuses are 20 days away.