(Radio Iowa) – The monthly survey of supply managers in Iowa and eight other Midwestern states shows both the state and regional economies took big falls during July. Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says it’s a warning sign for the economy in the months ahead, as the overall Business Conditions Index indicates a significant slowdown is looming in the Midwestern manufacturing sector.

Despite some recent optimism about the U-S economy’s overall performance, the survey shows the region’s supply managers estimate there’s almost a 50-50 chance of a recession in the second half of this year. Goss expects what he’s calling “a rolling recession” to impact certain sectors of the economy, especially commercial real estate and manufacturing.