(Radio Iowa) – The chance of spring flooding in eastern Iowa is “near normal to below normal,” according to the first flood outlook from the National Weather Service in Davenport. Rich Kinney, the warning coordination meteorologist, says that doesn’t mean there won’t be any flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Even though local snowpack is mostly melted, the snowpack in Minnesota hasn’t, and it’s storing an above-average amount of water.

“The rate of the snow melt, especially way up north in the upper reaches of the Mississippi River valley where there’s a lot more snow than there is down here,” Kinney says. “We’re also looking at additional snowfall or heavy spring rains.” From now through April, Kinney expects slightly above-normal precipitation. Another factor is — the ground is only frozen a few inches deep. That’ll allow melting snow and spring rain to be absorbed, instead of running off into local rivers.

“Our river levels are, for this time of year, running around normal to, in some places, a little bit below normal,” Kinney says. “So, we’ve got quite a bit of room in the rivers right now for storage for heavy precipitation.” At Lock and Dam 15 in the Quad Cities, the chance of the Mississippi River reaching flood stage is 51-percent, slightly lower than normal, and the chance it’ll reach major flood stage is 21-percent, also slightly lower than normal.

The weather service plans to begin offering in-person “spotter training” sessions soon, for the first time since early 2020. More than 4,000 people serve as spotters across 36 counties in the region.